The real estate route that attracted billions is gone: Inside Portugal's Golden Visa pivot to innovation

For more than a decade, Portugal ran one of the most successful residency-by-investment programs in the world — and real estate was its engine. Between 2012 and 2023, foreign investors poured an estimated 6.45 billion euros into Portuguese property through the Golden Visa program, reshaping neighborhoods across Lisbon, Porto, and the Algarve in the process.

Then, in October 2023, the Portuguese government shut the engine off.

Under the "Mais Habitação" (More Housing) law, real estate purchases were eliminated as a qualifying investment for the Golden Visa. So were capital transfers and real estate-linked funds. The move was designed to relieve pressure on a housing market where prices had risen 55% over the preceding decade while local incomes grew just 9%.

What happened next surprised many observers: Instead of collapsing, the program posted its strongest year on record.

7.3 Billion Euros and a Housing Crisis

Portugal launched the Golden Visa — formally the Autorização de Residência para Atividade de Investimento (ARI) — in October 2012, in the middle of a severe economic downturn. The pitch was straightforward: Invest at least 500,000 euros in Portuguese real estate, and receive a residence permit with visa-free access to Europe's Schengen Area, a minimal stay requirement of roughly seven days per year, and eligibility for citizenship after five years.

The program worked. According to official statistics compiled by Movingto.com, it attracted approximately 17,700 main applicants and over 7.3 billion euros in total investment through 2024. Real estate accounted for approximately 6.45 billion euros of that total — roughly 88% of all capital that flowed through the program. Capital transfers made up another 837 million euros, with the remaining investment split across job creation, research, and cultural heritage routes.

At its peak, the Golden Visa was issuing over 1,500 residence permits per year to main applicants alone. Including family members, more than 42,600 people obtained Portuguese residency through the program.

But the investment came with side effects. In Lisbon, nonresident buyers accounted for over 11% of home purchases by 2022, and average property values had climbed more than 30% in just two years. Rents in the capital surged, short-term tourist rentals consumed housing stock, and local residents — particularly younger Portuguese — found themselves priced out of their own cities.

"The Golden Visa became a political lightning rod," said Dean Fankhauser, CEO of Movingto.com, which has processed over 2,500 Golden Visa applications with a 98% approval rate. "The reality is that the program contributed a fraction of total foreign property investment in Portugal, but it became the face of the housing affordability debate."

Critics, including Lisbon's mayor, argued that the Mais Habitação bill failed to address the structural causes of the crisis — insufficient housing construction, booming tourism demand, and regulatory constraints that limited new supply. Portugal built roughly 20,000 new residential units in recent years, compared to 200,000 annually at the turn of the century. But the political calculus was clear: The real estate route had to go.

The Pivot: From Property to Funds

What replaced it was a fundamental reorientation of the program's economic logic. Instead of channeling foreign capital into an already-overheated property market, the reformed Golden Visa directs investment toward venture capital funds, scientific research, cultural heritage preservation, and job creation.

The current qualifying routes, as outlined in Portugal's Golden Visa program guide:

• Investment funds: A minimum 500,000 euro commitment to CMVM-regulated venture capital or private equity funds that invest at least 60% of their capital within Portugal. This is now the dominant route.
• Cultural heritage: A 250,000 euro contribution to certified cultural or artistic projects, reduced to 200,000 euros in designated low-density areas.
• Scientific research: A 500,000 euro investment supporting certified Portuguese research institutions or projects.
• Job creation: Establishing or investing in a business that creates a minimum of 10 jobs in Portugal.

The shift has been dramatic. According to Movingto.com's internal client data, 96% of current Golden Visa applicants are choosing the investment fund route, with just 3% opting for cultural heritage and 2% for scientific research. The job creation route, while still available, accounts for a negligible share of applications.

"Funds are the clear winner of the reform," Fankhauser said. "American investors in particular understand fund structures — they know how to evaluate a prospectus, they're comfortable with a five-year lock-up period, and they don't have to manage a property from 5,000 miles away."

The eligible funds span sectors that Portugal is actively trying to develop: technology, renewable energy, healthcare, life sciences, and sustainable infrastructure. All must be registered with Portugal's securities regulator, the CMVM (Comissão do Mercado de Valores Mobiliários), and are subject to ongoing compliance requirements.

A Record Year — Without Real Estate

The most striking data point in the post-reform era is that 2024 was the program's strongest year on record. According to AIMA's annual Migration and Asylum Report, published in October 2025, approximately 4,990 total Golden Visa permits were issued in 2024 — including both main applicants and family members — representing a 72% year-over-year increase and surpassing the previous high set in 2017.

The surge was partly driven by AIMA clearing a significant backlog of applications inherited from the former immigration agency SEF. But it also reflected genuinely strong new demand, particularly from American investors who now make up the largest national group of applicants. In 2023, U.S. nationals received 567 Golden Visa permits — a 162.5% increase from the prior year.

The family reunification numbers tell another important story. In 2024, 2,909 family members received residence permits linked to Golden Visa investments, up 87% from 1,554 in 2023. The growth in dependents suggests that investors are not simply parking capital in Portugal — they are making long-term plans that include spouses, children, and sometimes dependent parents.

The Housing Market Kept Rising Anyway

Perhaps the most uncomfortable data point for the Mais Habitação law's architects: Portuguese property prices continued climbing after the Golden Visa real estate route was removed.

By April 2025, median bank appraisal values had risen 16.9% year-over-year, reaching 1,866 euros per square meter. The housing market's trajectory suggests that the Golden Visa was never the primary driver of price increases — a conclusion that multiple real estate analysts and even members of the subsequent government have acknowledged.

The structural supply problem persists. Construction constraints, including labor shortages, elevated material costs, and administrative delays, continue to limit new housing stock. The Portuguese government has since launched a 2 billion euro public housing initiative and proposed easing construction restrictions to promote denser urban development, tacitly conceding that cutting off Golden Visa capital alone was insufficient.

What the Shift Means for Portugal's Economy

The Golden Visa's pivot from real estate to funds represents a broader bet on economic transformation. The earlier model concentrated foreign capital in an asset class that, while visible and politically sensitive, produced limited multiplier effects. An investor buying a 500,000 euro apartment in Lisbon's Chiado neighborhood generated transaction taxes and occasional renovation spending, but contributed little to Portugal's productive economy.

The fund-based model is designed to work differently. Capital channeled through regulated venture capital and private equity funds flows into Portuguese companies — startups, SMEs, research projects, and infrastructure developments — that generate employment, tax revenue, and intellectual property. The CMVM's requirement that at least 60% of fund capital be invested domestically provides a structural floor for Portuguese economic exposure.

Whether this bet pays off depends on factors that will take years to evaluate: the performance of the underlying funds, the quality of the companies they invest in, and Portugal's ability to develop the innovation ecosystem needed to absorb and productively deploy this capital.

Early indications are promising. Portugal's tech ecosystem has expanded significantly in recent years, anchored by events like the Web Summit (which relocated from Dublin to Lisbon in 2016) and a growing cluster of startups and venture-backed companies. The country's GDP growth forecast of approximately 2.4% for 2025 outpaces the eurozone average, and foreign direct investment has remained robust even as the Golden Visa underwent its structural overhaul.

A Program in Transition

The Golden Visa's reinvention is not complete. Processing times through AIMA remain lengthy — typically 12 to 24 months from application to initial permit — and the pending nationality law changes could extend the citizenship timeline from five years to 10. Portugal's Parliament is still deliberating on the revised legislation, which was vetoed by President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa in December 2025 after the Constitutional Court struck down several provisions.

For investors, the calculus has changed but the fundamentals remain intact: European residency with minimal physical presence, access to the Schengen Area, and a citizenship pathway — the timeline of which remains uncertain. For Portugal, the question is whether redirecting billions in foreign capital from apartments to innovation can deliver the economic returns the government is banking on.

What is clear from the program's 12-year statistical record is that the Golden Visa has proven remarkably resilient through multiple political upheavals, regulatory overhauls, and a global pandemic. The real estate era generated 6.45 billion euros and reshaped Portugal's cities. The fund era is just beginning — and its consequences may prove even more transformative.

Methodology

This analysis draws on publicly available data from Portugal's immigration agency AIMA, as compiled and analyzed by Movingto.com; internal client data from Movingto.com based on 2,500+ processed applications (2022-2025); AIMA's annual Migration and Asylum Reports (2023 and 2024); CMVM fund registration data; and Portuguese housing market statistics from the Instituto Nacional de Estatística. Historical Golden Visa program data covers October 2012 through 2024. Investment breakdowns through 2023 are drawn from official ARI reporting, as AIMA ceased publishing granular investment-type data after that date. For a full breakdown of current qualifying routes, costs, and processing timelines, see Movingto.com's Portugal Golden Visa guide.

This story was produced by Movingto.com and reviewed and distributed by Stacker.